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when we come back, jim cramer on the stocks going up faster than mitt romney's poll numbers because of mitt romney's poll numbers. >> up next, a republican with a different view of thou fix america's fiscal mess. david stockman served in the reagan administration but he's not talking tax cuts, quite the opposite. larry kudlow will take him on. we count you down to the vice presidential debate in danville, kentucky. two years ago, the people of bp made a commitment to the gulf. and every day since, we've worked hard to keep it. bp has paid over twenty-three billion dollars to help people and businesses who were affected, and to cover cleanup costs. today, the beaches and gulf are open for everyone to enjoy -- and many areas are reporting their best tourism seasons in years. we've shared what we've learned with governments and across the industry so we can all produce energy more safely. i want you to know, there's another commitment bp takes just as seriously: our commitment to america. bp supports nearly two-hundred-fifty thousand jobs in communities across the country. we hired three
when we come back, jim cramer on the stocks going up faster than mitt romney's poll numbers because of mitt romney's poll numbers. >> up next, a republican with a different view of thou fix america's fiscal mess. david stockman served in the reagan administration but he's not talking tax cuts, quite the opposite. larry kudlow will take him on. we count you down to the vice presidential debate in danville, kentucky. two years ago, the people of bp made a commitment to the gulf. and every...
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Oct 7, 2012
10/12
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but first, here is the gallop daily tracking poll, mitt romney closing the gap on president obama, who still leads by three points, 49-46, and taking to the tv air waves, the romney camp claiming the president's plan will increase taxes, here is the new ad. >> president obama continues to distort mitt romney's economic plan. the latest? not telling the truth about mitt romney's plan, it doesn't add up, abc news, mostly fiction, even the obama campaign admitted it was not true. >> okay, stipulatelated. it won't be near 5 trillion. >> obama's plan? $4,000 more in taxes on the middle class, we can't afford four more years. >>> from the obama campaign, an ad targeting mitt romney's plan, and calling it just an act. >> why was romney so dishonest about his plan? the massive new tax cut for millionaires means higher tax cuts for the middle class, and aarp says romney's plan undermines medicare by turning it into a voucher. we have real challenges to meet. children to educate, a class to rebuild. >> one more note within this past hour, the president left on a two-day campaign swing through ca
but first, here is the gallop daily tracking poll, mitt romney closing the gap on president obama, who still leads by three points, 49-46, and taking to the tv air waves, the romney camp claiming the president's plan will increase taxes, here is the new ad. >> president obama continues to distort mitt romney's economic plan. the latest? not telling the truth about mitt romney's plan, it doesn't add up, abc news, mostly fiction, even the obama campaign admitted it was not true. >>...
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Oct 8, 2012
10/12
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the initial wave of state polls showed romney doing pretty well in the battleground states. in the rasmussen polls over the last two days, obama is doing better. that's consistent with the trend i talked about earlier. the question is whether obama gets an outsized bounce in states like ohio, nevada and iowa where he was doing better than nationally. if you look at all of the national polls conducted since the first debate, what you see is about a three point gain for romney. if that holds and if that uniformly filtering down to the battleground states, romney would still trail in iowa, ohio and alabama and obama would have a slight advantage ♪ electoral college. >> continuing our theme of what really matters, let's talk about the polls. obviously, polls don't vote. but do they sway the electorate? do they see one person as leading or gaining and some people decide to change their vote? is there some science on do polls actually shape the election itself? >> i don't think there's very much evidence that polls shift the election. if they did, i think we would see, you know,
the initial wave of state polls showed romney doing pretty well in the battleground states. in the rasmussen polls over the last two days, obama is doing better. that's consistent with the trend i talked about earlier. the question is whether obama gets an outsized bounce in states like ohio, nevada and iowa where he was doing better than nationally. if you look at all of the national polls conducted since the first debate, what you see is about a three point gain for romney. if that holds and...
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Oct 9, 2012
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just last month in the same poll, romney trailed by eight points. driving romney surge, a spike in republican enthusiasm, more republicans made it through pew's likely voter screen than democrats. and a larger group of registered voters, the candidates are tied at 46. while it's unlikely returns on election day make it unlikely in this pew sample that romney has the upper hand. and looking inside the pew numbers, we're looking at an unlikely -- now romney leads by six, 50-44. will we see that same shift in the battleground state polls? we'll have to see what happened what happens. >> this is the last day for voters to register to vote there, that's why they're both there. romney kicks off a two-day ohio journey, he'll be back in ohio again on friday. meanwhile the president holds an evening rally at ohio state university in columbus. by the way romney starts his day on a family farm in central iowa. another midwestern battleground state. paul ryan does his debate prep today in florida. the vice president signalled a new urgency to voters saying, quo
just last month in the same poll, romney trailed by eight points. driving romney surge, a spike in republican enthusiasm, more republicans made it through pew's likely voter screen than democrats. and a larger group of registered voters, the candidates are tied at 46. while it's unlikely returns on election day make it unlikely in this pew sample that romney has the upper hand. and looking inside the pew numbers, we're looking at an unlikely -- now romney leads by six, 50-44. will we see that...
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Oct 9, 2012
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. >> sean: mitt romney closes the gap and latest poll numbers fell. dick morris, ann coulter, the latest on romney's debate battle. >> just so everybody understands l critics slammed his performance. >> it's okay. >> no problem. >> tonight, setting the record straight. and an explosive details emerging about a campaign donor scandal that could and former un ambassador john bolton breaks down. >> the hope is not a strategy. we're 29 days from the election, hannity starts right here, right now. governor mitt romney's impressive performance at the presidential debate will go down in history as most decisive victory in history. and and there is a record-breaking 52 point margin, 72% think romney did a better job than president barack obama. and there is cause for polls as well, nationally and in battle ground states. begin with the latest survey. the governor now tied among registered voters and and three more days after the debate has to be counted. according to the pew research center poll, romney leads 49% to 45%. according to the brand new george wash
. >> sean: mitt romney closes the gap and latest poll numbers fell. dick morris, ann coulter, the latest on romney's debate battle. >> just so everybody understands l critics slammed his performance. >> it's okay. >> no problem. >> tonight, setting the record straight. and an explosive details emerging about a campaign donor scandal that could and former un ambassador john bolton breaks down. >> the hope is not a strategy. we're 29 days from the election,...
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Oct 9, 2012
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the gallup poll showed president obama under mitt romney. how do they come back after a such a large gap? >> that 72% likely seems large, but those numbers are often dictated by the spin that comes after a debate performance, so it's probably a little bit artificially high for those who saw the debate. that being said i think the president needs to get back into the driver's seat. it has really only been the last several months that we has taken off in a position of strong play. he needs to give the base a reason to be excited. if there's anything to worry about, it's the enthusiasm numbers, and those are the easiest to impact on a moments notice. if like michelle said he's aggressive on the stump in articulating his vision but also tying it back to how his record has impacted people in this country, and how his plans and romney's plans will do that in the future. >> joy: and michelle there was a battle groub poll that shows nation wise 86% of romney supports are extremely likely to vote. so the question is how does the president energize re
the gallup poll showed president obama under mitt romney. how do they come back after a such a large gap? >> that 72% likely seems large, but those numbers are often dictated by the spin that comes after a debate performance, so it's probably a little bit artificially high for those who saw the debate. that being said i think the president needs to get back into the driver's seat. it has really only been the last several months that we has taken off in a position of strong play. he needs...
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Oct 8, 2012
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it appears that in one poll, in the pew poll, mitt romney is up against the president and in the gallup seven-day tracking poll, the president is up 50 to 45, if i have mitt romney's number right in that poll. this race has been, is, and will continue to be until election day a very close race. and so either side can take heart in a poll that shows his or her candidate being on top but, remember, this race is basically tied. >> now, the vice presidential debate, the one and only one, will be be this thursday night and paul ryan, the republican vice presidential nominee, was questioning his weekend on what he was doing to prepare for the debate. here's his response. >> how you feeling about the debate? >> what debate? oh, yeah. i better get ready for that. >> you know, i better get started. you just reminded me. no, it's going well. >> what are you looking for in that debate, marge, on thursday night? >> well, first of all, paul ryan should focus on explaining the math. that's something he dismissed when asked about it on fox news about a week or two ago. >> right. >> so he should now fi
it appears that in one poll, in the pew poll, mitt romney is up against the president and in the gallup seven-day tracking poll, the president is up 50 to 45, if i have mitt romney's number right in that poll. this race has been, is, and will continue to be until election day a very close race. and so either side can take heart in a poll that shows his or her candidate being on top but, remember, this race is basically tied. >> now, the vice presidential debate, the one and only one, will...
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Oct 10, 2012
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romney up by 4 points in the pew poll. in the swing states, mr. romney leading in colorado by 4. mr. obama leading in pennsylvania by 2, the right poll showing a tie in nevada. the president up in new hampshire by 6 points. and really the one poll we waited on all day, the one poll that might matter more than any other single piece of data, the one piece we got today, president obama holding on to a 4-point lead in ohio. let's poll this one out. this is a cnn number from this afternoon. barack obama with an edge of 4 points in ohio, which is just outside the margin of error. it's far less than the 9-point leads in the survey not long ago. i should say to democrats and obama supporters, i'm sorry if i unleashed those numbers on you with a mature content warning label. but my friend e.j. dionne will be with us later. he says, i was talking with an old friend who was one of the nonpartisan polling outfits. we were discussing the large shifts in some of the polls on the presidential election and the feedback he receives whenever he puts out new numbers that make one side or the other
romney up by 4 points in the pew poll. in the swing states, mr. romney leading in colorado by 4. mr. obama leading in pennsylvania by 2, the right poll showing a tie in nevada. the president up in new hampshire by 6 points. and really the one poll we waited on all day, the one poll that might matter more than any other single piece of data, the one piece we got today, president obama holding on to a 4-point lead in ohio. let's poll this one out. this is a cnn number from this afternoon. barack...
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. >> over a windfall of new polling. >> we're seeing polls all over the place. >> mitt romney got a debate bounce. >> we cannot turn back now. >> the narrative about who's up, who's down in this race for the white house. >> it's a race that is anything but settled. >> there will be plenty of ups and downs over the next 28 days. >> just 28 days until election. >> are you in? are you ready for this? 28 days. are you with me? >>> tonight with 28 days until the presidential election, the head of the evolution-denying party got this question about evolution. >> that 47% comment that you made that's caused you a lot of grieve as you know. there's been a change in wrur position. you were initially saying when that tape came out that you weren't exactly elegantly stating your position. later and more recently you said you were completely wrong. i'm curious, governor, how did that evolution in your thinking go on from the initial reaction once that tape came out to what you said the other day that you were completely wrong? >> well, what i'm saying is that -- the words that came out were not what i
. >> over a windfall of new polling. >> we're seeing polls all over the place. >> mitt romney got a debate bounce. >> we cannot turn back now. >> the narrative about who's up, who's down in this race for the white house. >> it's a race that is anything but settled. >> there will be plenty of ups and downs over the next 28 days. >> just 28 days until election. >> are you in? are you ready for this? 28 days. are you with me? >>>...
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romney trailed by eight points earlier in month in that poll. we look at the poll numbers and all the important electoral college count in just a few moments. but first, governor romney says the president's global vision puts american national security at risk. chief political correspondent carl cameron has specifics. >> at the virginia military institute in measured tone, mitt romney wants his toughest critique yet of obama foreign policy. >> america security and cause of freedom cannot afford four more years like the last four years. >> romney said hope is not a strategy. administration policy weakened the u.s. and its allies while emboldening the enemies. >> with iran closer than ever to nuclear weapons capability with the conflict in syria threatening to destabilize the region and with violent extremists on the march, and with an american ambassador and three others dead, likely at the hands of al-qaeda affiliates, it's clear that the risk of conflict in the region is higher now than when the president took office. >> romney ripped the admin
romney trailed by eight points earlier in month in that poll. we look at the poll numbers and all the important electoral college count in just a few moments. but first, governor romney says the president's global vision puts american national security at risk. chief political correspondent carl cameron has specifics. >> at the virginia military institute in measured tone, mitt romney wants his toughest critique yet of obama foreign policy. >> america security and cause of freedom...
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Oct 10, 2012
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the gallup poll, for instance, has romney doing five points better. other polls have that a little smaller. so it seems like obama would even today win an election if everyone registered to vote turned out or certainly all adults. but based on the republican enthusiasm advantage and some democrats, i think, feeling a little disupon dent after the pr performance in denver last week, that alone might be enough to push romney over the top. >> the special way that you sort of distill the candidate's chances at 538, your now cast factors in not just polling but also economic data and other measures that you think give you a percentage chance that one of the two candidates will win the election. what's the percentage chance you have for each of the candidates and has that changed less than the national polls changed? >> the percentage is a 70/30 advantage for obama. which, by the way, if you go to vegas or offshore versions of vegas, you can bet at about those odds. obama is a 70% favorite. but my site had obama as an 85% favorite before the debate. means r
the gallup poll, for instance, has romney doing five points better. other polls have that a little smaller. so it seems like obama would even today win an election if everyone registered to vote turned out or certainly all adults. but based on the republican enthusiasm advantage and some democrats, i think, feeling a little disupon dent after the pr performance in denver last week, that alone might be enough to push romney over the top. >> the special way that you sort of distill the...
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Oct 15, 2012
10/12
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CNN
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romney now leads the president 48%, 47% in cnn's poll of polls and perhaps even more telling after the months of voters finding president obama more likable than romney, now they're tied according to a new poll with romney actually over 50%, i think, for the first time. according to andrew sullivan, it's going to take a lot of quote, intelligence, fire, and argument, unquote, for the president to turn this thing around. and it still might not be enough for obama to break even for romney in the remaining two debates. that brings us back, then, for tomorrow's debate. tomorrow's debate moderated by candy crowley. the town hall format could make it even tougher for the president to win. no teleprompter and all of that. no doubt the president will have to come out strong against romney, but also has to show he can connect with the voters in the town hall and those people watching at home. it's all a very tricky balancing act. and above all else, mr. obama will have to avoid the long, boring, professor-like answers that he is sometimes prone to. here's the question. what's the president's gr
romney now leads the president 48%, 47% in cnn's poll of polls and perhaps even more telling after the months of voters finding president obama more likable than romney, now they're tied according to a new poll with romney actually over 50%, i think, for the first time. according to andrew sullivan, it's going to take a lot of quote, intelligence, fire, and argument, unquote, for the president to turn this thing around. and it still might not be enough for obama to break even for romney in the...
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Oct 9, 2012
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on top of that, the polls show romney is leading among independent voters by a staggering 16%. according to fox news polls, exit polls in 2008, obama won the independent vote by 8%. so that means that's a 24-point shift with 29 days before the election. all of this has sent the obama campaign into full crisis and panic mode. the president, his surrogates are sinking lower than they have before all in an effort to stop the romney surge. they're playing desperate. they want to paint governor romney has someone the america people should fear. their chicago-style politics are played out on a national stage because at the end of the day that's their only option. this is what happens when you are a desperate candidate who has failed his constituents for nearly four years. you're forced to call your opponent a liar pants on fire. >> plenty of people have pointed out what a liar mitt romney is and was last night. i mean, if he was talking -- he was speaking last night, he was lying. >> are you saying that governor romney lied or was dishonest? >> well, yeah, i think he was dishonest ab
on top of that, the polls show romney is leading among independent voters by a staggering 16%. according to fox news polls, exit polls in 2008, obama won the independent vote by 8%. so that means that's a 24-point shift with 29 days before the election. all of this has sent the obama campaign into full crisis and panic mode. the president, his surrogates are sinking lower than they have before all in an effort to stop the romney surge. they're playing desperate. they want to paint governor...
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Oct 12, 2012
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. >> the poll numbers for romney and ryan soaring after the first presidential debate. democrats openly counting on joe biden tonight to stop that republican momentum. >> osama bin laden is dead and general motors is arrive. >> the 2012 vice presidential debate starts right now. >>> happy debate night, everybody. the best television series of 2011 was the republican primary debates. there were 1 million of them. they played to huge audiences week after week and never disappointed. now it is october 2012 and the most compelling thing on television anywhere in the country is once again the debates. only now there are only two candidates at a time and the stakes are way higher. i'm rachel maddow. here on our msnbc headquarters in new york. i'm joined by ed schultz, reverend al sharpton, chris hayes, steve schmidt. lawrence o'donnell is our man in the spin room tonight. the one and only chris matthews is at centre college in danville, kentucky, the site of tonight's debate. chris, is this unusually high stakes for a vice presidential debate? >> well, it's great being with y
. >> the poll numbers for romney and ryan soaring after the first presidential debate. democrats openly counting on joe biden tonight to stop that republican momentum. >> osama bin laden is dead and general motors is arrive. >> the 2012 vice presidential debate starts right now. >>> happy debate night, everybody. the best television series of 2011 was the republican primary debates. there were 1 million of them. they played to huge audiences week after week and never...
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Oct 8, 2012
10/12
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WBAL
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poll numbers improving. >> they're looking very good. >> reporter: after the debate, romney is within two points of the president. and tomorrow, both candidates head to ohio, battleground ohio, where early voting is already under way. tomorrow is the last day to register to vote there. veronica? >> thank you. mitt romney will deliver that major policy speech before noon eastern, but the obama campaign is issuing a preemptive strike with this new tv ad criticizing the republican candidate's past foreign policy faux pas. take a look. >> reckless. amateurish. that's what news media and fellow republicans called mitt romney's gaffe-filled july tour of england, israel, and poland, when our u.s. diplomats were attacked in libya, "the new york times" said romney's response showed an extraordinary lack of presidential character. >> the obama campaign sed this will be romney's seventh speech on foreign policy. >>> venezuelan president hugo chavez gets to keep his job for another seven years, but his re-election came in the slimmest margin ever in his nearly 14 years in power. actor danny glove
poll numbers improving. >> they're looking very good. >> reporter: after the debate, romney is within two points of the president. and tomorrow, both candidates head to ohio, battleground ohio, where early voting is already under way. tomorrow is the last day to register to vote there. veronica? >> thank you. mitt romney will deliver that major policy speech before noon eastern, but the obama campaign is issuing a preemptive strike with this new tv ad criticizing the...
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Oct 9, 2012
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because the poll advertise that romney/ryan would put in place would be really detrimental. they are the party of todd akin and the legitimate rape natural body rejection -- it's absurd. >> stephanie: yeah, again, i read the polling earlier, a lot of it is a little bit all over the place. clearly it is tight and the debate did not help, but this is one they are talking about party id, because it is out of whack with all of the other ones. >> yeah i do think what happened was maybe they went in and polled a bunch of people in the days after the debate and the new jobs numbers came out and that pushes it back into the president's favor a little bit. we have so many polls, and it's really difficult day-to-day to tell what is the most trustworthy, and what isn't. and if you take a look at some of the swing state polls, and where the president is consistently leading and demographics, it just doesn't seem like this one poll -- it just doesn't make sense. >> stephanie: do you think the president is going to have a chance to correct all of these -- there's no other way to say it --
because the poll advertise that romney/ryan would put in place would be really detrimental. they are the party of todd akin and the legitimate rape natural body rejection -- it's absurd. >> stephanie: yeah, again, i read the polling earlier, a lot of it is a little bit all over the place. clearly it is tight and the debate did not help, but this is one they are talking about party id, because it is out of whack with all of the other ones. >> yeah i do think what happened was maybe...
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Oct 14, 2012
10/12
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some polls show romney up one or two. but the key is what happens in those eight or nine battleground states that are going to determine who gets the lek trorl votes. we saw it last week in our wall street journal poll in ohio. you had a huge advantage for obama in the early vote. we have seen that in other states like iowa. that doesn't necessarily mean the democrats will win the states. it could be they're harvesting the votes elier than republicans. but it's an indication that democrats put this a infrastructure in place while the primaries were going on. they're trying to capitalize on that now. >> so they're making up lost time in the ground game, you think? >> yes, of course they are. when you have the luxury of a primary in the beginning, you can see that this is very all the techniques that they have to reach out, identity the voters. republicans are playing catchup. however, in a race in cl mitt romney has developed momentum late, you can make up in momentum what you missed out on early in the organization. jacki
some polls show romney up one or two. but the key is what happens in those eight or nine battleground states that are going to determine who gets the lek trorl votes. we saw it last week in our wall street journal poll in ohio. you had a huge advantage for obama in the early vote. we have seen that in other states like iowa. that doesn't necessarily mean the democrats will win the states. it could be they're harvesting the votes elier than republicans. but it's an indication that democrats put...
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Oct 10, 2012
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earlier we talked about the polls and mitt romney on the move. mitt romney spent 90 minutes on the stage lying about everything he claimed to stand for prior to the debate. he lied about his tax plan, he lied about his health care plan, he lied about medicare and medicaid and social security, he lied about deregulation, he lied about jobs, he lied about education. think about this. after campaigning for 18 months on a tax plan for the job creators there that will reduce their taxes 20% on personal income, cut capital gains taxes and business taxes, romney stood on stage with president obama and denied all of that. he told the american people that he really didn't have a plan, which my friends, is completely a 180. after saying it, every campaign stop for 18 months that he would repeal obama care on day one, he stood before the american people and said his plan would take care of preexisting conditions. after the debate, his campaign admitted it would not. romney says his health care plan, which passed in massachusetts, would be good for states. b
earlier we talked about the polls and mitt romney on the move. mitt romney spent 90 minutes on the stage lying about everything he claimed to stand for prior to the debate. he lied about his tax plan, he lied about his health care plan, he lied about medicare and medicaid and social security, he lied about deregulation, he lied about jobs, he lied about education. think about this. after campaigning for 18 months on a tax plan for the job creators there that will reduce their taxes 20% on...
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Oct 15, 2012
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first a "washington post"/abc news poll that had president obama up 49% to 46% over mitt romney among likely voters. there was a george washington poll that had closer, 49% for president obama and 48% for mitt romney among likely voters. that's the situation into the second presidential debate, the town hall format in hofstra in new york. >> the daily gallup tracking poll shows likely voter, obama 48% and romney 46%. i think it was friday, mark, you and i were talking about or thursday the numbers and polling. for analysts like yourself is where you expected the race to be at this time? >> right. in fact, we actually expected the race to be before we saw president obama with that very big surge he had after the democrat democrat democratic convention and after weeks of focus on the 47% remark. we came back to where we were at the very end of august right before the political conventions all kicked off. almost promising a very tight race, similar perhaps to 2004 between john kerry and george w. bush and even 2000 that close contest between george w. bush and al gore. >> we're going to
first a "washington post"/abc news poll that had president obama up 49% to 46% over mitt romney among likely voters. there was a george washington poll that had closer, 49% for president obama and 48% for mitt romney among likely voters. that's the situation into the second presidential debate, the town hall format in hofstra in new york. >> the daily gallup tracking poll shows likely voter, obama 48% and romney 46%. i think it was friday, mark, you and i were talking about or...
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in colorado, in one right-leaning poll romney is now up by 3 points. the same showed him losing by 5 before the debate. now he's up by 3. in virginia, the president is ahead by 3 in virginia. that same poll had the president's lead at 5 points before the debate. that shows the president's lead shrinking. in michigan, it's now barack obama by just 3 points. the president had led by 10 last month. now it's down to 3. in ohio today, a poll on the right gives the president an edge of 2 points. that poll in iowa shows a gain for mr. obama, a 5-point gain. in florida, the same poll shows a 4-point swing for romney. he's up by 2 points. so the major fall or minor lift, however, you rattle the number lose, as the overall national polling shifts and the swing state races shift with them, the state where the romney campaign is hoping for the biggest shift of all is in ohio. in modern political history, ohio has been the path to the presidency for republican candidates. if republican candidates win ohio, they win the white house. if mitt romney doesn't win ohio,
in colorado, in one right-leaning poll romney is now up by 3 points. the same showed him losing by 5 before the debate. now he's up by 3. in virginia, the president is ahead by 3 in virginia. that same poll had the president's lead at 5 points before the debate. that shows the president's lead shrinking. in michigan, it's now barack obama by just 3 points. the president had led by 10 last month. now it's down to 3. in ohio today, a poll on the right gives the president an edge of 2 points. that...
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Oct 11, 2012
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and one poll had romney ahead by one. since the debate there, have been three polls. obama ahead by one and fourer, and romney ahead by one. it's a real clear politics average of 0.8 tenths. looks like movement there. look, it's hard to move only in individual states. the individual states mimic to a lesser or greater extent what's happening nationwide. if you look at that, in the real clear politics average before the debates, it was obama leading by 3.1%. after the debates, as of this afternoon, it's romney leading by a point. that's a swing of 4.1%. and leading 48. that bounce will grow a little bit more as we get polls here in the next couple of days. i would not be surprised to see it grow to five points. >> bill: nevada and colorado are two states that mitt romney could win, correct? >> yeah. correct. we've got some polling in colorado. before happened there were four polls. obama won two of them. by three and four points. romney won two by three and four points. since then, we had two polls. the real clear politics average is now swung colorado into romney's co
and one poll had romney ahead by one. since the debate there, have been three polls. obama ahead by one and fourer, and romney ahead by one. it's a real clear politics average of 0.8 tenths. looks like movement there. look, it's hard to move only in individual states. the individual states mimic to a lesser or greater extent what's happening nationwide. if you look at that, in the real clear politics average before the debates, it was obama leading by 3.1%. after the debates, as of this...
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Oct 15, 2012
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with just 22 days until the election, a new cnn poll of polls has mitt romney leading president obama by one percentage point. now, that comes out to 48-47 and obviously, well within the margin of error, so it's a dead heat. but it's a significant reversal from a month ago when president obama was leading 49-46. you get the point. when you add it up, that's where you get the the margin. other polls show a dead heat. many of them have the president in the leading spot. "outfront" tonight, david frum, former speech wroiter for george bush -- and mark mckinnon is back with us. great to see you. let me start with you, david. we're starting to see republicans rally around mitt romney. latest poll i think is a good indicator. 62% of romney supporters say we're excited about this guy. it was 48% before the convention. what's behind that shift? >> well, i think it would be a mistake to say they're enthusiastic about him and therefore, they're going to vote for thim. they're going to vote for him, so they have no choice but to become enthusiastic. we are seeing a rallying of bases on both side
with just 22 days until the election, a new cnn poll of polls has mitt romney leading president obama by one percentage point. now, that comes out to 48-47 and obviously, well within the margin of error, so it's a dead heat. but it's a significant reversal from a month ago when president obama was leading 49-46. you get the point. when you add it up, that's where you get the the margin. other polls show a dead heat. many of them have the president in the leading spot. "outfront"...
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. >> 18 point swing in one poll is huge. >> if we were to see that number confirmed by other poll, romney would be the favorite but it's not what we're seeing in the bulk of data. sometimes there can be a tendency to take a big headline number, when we're getting 15 or 20 polls released. if romney is doing that well among women, we will see the result confirmed by other polls quite soon. >> his people also believe that he did well from the debate independents, men, the elderly in particular. that's what their own internal polling is showing. would you agree with that? >> in the debate he was able to reposition himself toward the center of the electorate. last time we talked about, this is something very strange where romney has been playing to the base, even to some extent at his convention, he was doing that. but he shifted towards the center and obama was a little bit feeble in trying to rebut that. that's an important factor. historically candidates who can appear to be in the middle of the electorate tend to win and those on the wings tend to lose. that was a big strategic gain romney
. >> 18 point swing in one poll is huge. >> if we were to see that number confirmed by other poll, romney would be the favorite but it's not what we're seeing in the bulk of data. sometimes there can be a tendency to take a big headline number, when we're getting 15 or 20 polls released. if romney is doing that well among women, we will see the result confirmed by other polls quite soon. >> his people also believe that he did well from the debate independents, men, the elderly...
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Oct 9, 2012
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let's talk about the pew poll and that romney lead. could you break down those numbers. >> that's a huge lead. if that number is correct, you know, it seems to be a little bit of an outlier. we don't have a lot of information. all the polls that have been released since the debate, state polls, national polls and the average for romney is he's increased his performance by about four to five points. that's a big deal. since the convention, obama seemed to have a lead of about four points. now it's gone back to the pre-convention period where it was tied or obama had a one to two-point lead in all the polls. the best thing to do is to wait for the by the end of the week we'll have more national poll. we'll see what's showing up in the swing state. it does seem just like obama got a big bump out of his convention, mitt romney has a significant bump out of his first debate performance. >> we need to look at overall trends. overall trends clearly moving towards romney including in key voting groups. women voters, if you look at pew a month
let's talk about the pew poll and that romney lead. could you break down those numbers. >> that's a huge lead. if that number is correct, you know, it seems to be a little bit of an outlier. we don't have a lot of information. all the polls that have been released since the debate, state polls, national polls and the average for romney is he's increased his performance by about four to five points. that's a big deal. since the convention, obama seemed to have a lead of about four points....
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romney was getting hammered in the polls. keeping them honest though, disputing or downplaying the obvious, that's what campaigns do on both sides. >> it's not going to be about the polls. >> i wouldn't put a lot of weight in any of these national polls for the next couple days. >> in terms of mitt romney surging, just remember how much of a deficit he had to make up. he was in some cases double digits behind the president in all those attributes. >> pull back the reins. >> the media is focusing on one poll. >> that's reaction to the recent batch of polling, including that devastating pew poll that showed a four point romney lead. now consider that pew took an earlier poll in september a couple weeks before the debate, it was the republicans going ballistic when it showed romney eight points down. watch. >> these polls are basically just part and parcel of the campaign for barack obama to help him stay in this game as long as possible. >> if you believe what the polls are saying right now, you've got to believe that there's s
romney was getting hammered in the polls. keeping them honest though, disputing or downplaying the obvious, that's what campaigns do on both sides. >> it's not going to be about the polls. >> i wouldn't put a lot of weight in any of these national polls for the next couple days. >> in terms of mitt romney surging, just remember how much of a deficit he had to make up. he was in some cases double digits behind the president in all those attributes. >> pull back the reins....